All posts by admin

Massively Profitable Activity Hits OptionHacker in Tesoro Corporation (TSO)

Tesoro Corporation (TSO) is a Texas based oil and gas refining company that distributes bulk/wholesale transportation fuels as well as retail gasoline and diesel products. At the time of this post (12:45PM CST), TSO is currently trading at 86.46, up 3.84% on the day. The stock is currently well within the upper portion of its 52 week trading range of 47.03-89.18, and is trading just off the year’s highs after a slight pullback in share prices last week managed to hold over the 80.00 support level on the daily chart.

Earlier this afternoon at approximately 12:07PM CST, OptionHacker detected and flagged some unusually bullish options activity as simultaneous large block orders hit the tape in both the Feb ’15 85.0 strike calls and the Feb 27th ’15 86.0 strike calls just as the stock began to break through 85.00 intraday resistance. A trader stepped in and bought 1,475 of the Feb monthly 85.0 calls expiring this week for 1.06, and another 2,153 of next week’s weekly Feb 27th expiration 86.0 calls for 1.22, aggressively paying above the offer across multiple exchanges in both cases.

After these calls hit the tape shares of TSO ripped to session highs and these calls moved higher with the stock.

Trade: A trader bought 2,153 TSO Feb 27th Weekly 86 Calls for $1.22
Risk: $122 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $87.22

Trade: A trader bought 1,475 TSO Feb 85 Calls for $1.06
Risk :$106 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $86.06

The TSO Weekly 86 have already traded as high as $2.34 and the Feb 85 have traded as high as $2.32. This means that both of these options doubled in a matter of less than an hour making this an extremely profitable trade.

No Sun Shining on SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) Earnings

SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) is a designer, fabricator and seller of solar energy systems for both residential and commercial building use. At the time of this post (11:15AM CST), SCTY is currently trading at 58.16, up 0.07% on the day. The stock is currently trading well within the lower portion of its 52 week trading range of 45.79-88.35 and has been unable to break above and trade over the 60.00 level resistance since early October 2014. SCTY is scheduled to report earnings today, 2/1/8/2015 after the market close.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, SCTY has traded predominantly bearishly, moving lower on six out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period was approximately 9.2%, although it may be worth noting that four of the stock’s post-EPS directional moves registered over 10%. Currently the options market is pricing in a slightly lower than average move of 7.5% based on the current pricing of the at-the-money straddle. This would imply a directional move of about $4.40 in the price of the underlying stock by this Friday’s monthly options expiration. SCTY remains above the cloud and most relevant moving averages on the daily chart, but the Ichimoku Cloud is firmly downward sloping, and as previously stated the overall investor sentiment over the majority of the past year has been largely bearish. In conjunction with the propensity of SCTY to trade lower after earnings, I will be looking to establish a short position in this name going into this afternoon’s close.

Potential Trade: Buying the SCTY Feb 56-55 Put Spreads for $0.30
Risk: $30 per 1 lot
Reward: $70 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $55.70

Is Bearish Order Flow Signaling a Sell Off in Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) On Earnings?

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) is a Texas based consumer fashion accessory designer and manufacturer, with a physical retail presence consisting of over 300 brick and mortar standalone locations and over 200 outlet locations worldwide. At the time of this post (12:20PM CST), FOSL is currently trading at 99.19, up 0.77% on the day. The stock is currently well within the lower portion of its 52 week trading range of 91.84-121.89, and although it has managed to remain above key 95.00 level support on a daily chart, FOSL has been unable to maintain any significant upward traction and remains well below the downward sloping Ichimoku Cloud and most of the relevant moving averages.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, FOSL has traded with mixed results, moving higher and lower equally (four out of eight sessions) immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period was approximately 7.7%. FOSL has been drawing some bearish options activity today as traders buy put spreads expiring this week. Earlier this morning large blocks of the FOSL Feb 98-91 put spreads were bought indicating that this trader believe FOSL will close below $91 on Friday. The options market is implying a move of around $8.30 by Fridays close which would give us a downside target around $91.15. With the weakness in FOSL’s chart and the bearish order flow we are seeing in the stock today I will be looking to get short FOSL into the close.

Potential Trade: Buying the FOSL Feb 95-91 Put Spreads for $1.00
Risk: $100 per 1 lot
Reward: $300 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $94.00

Domtar Corporation (UFS) Shows Some Very Profitable Order Flow

Domtar Corporation (UFS) is a consumer paper goods manufacturer and distributor based in Montreal, Quebec. At the time of this post (11:00AM CST), UFS is currently trading at 44.87, up 2.87% on the day. The stock is currently within the lower-middle portion of its 52 week trading range of 33.04-57.88, though it has rallied to close higher the last five consecutive sessions since breaking out over the 40.00 resistance level on the daily chart on February 6th.

Earlier today a trader bought 1,189 UFS Apr 45 calls for $1.85. This order represents 19.5 times the average daily options volume in UFS. I bought some of these calls for $1.85 and have already taken a profit target in them at $2.00. UFS stock ripped to session highs as soon as this order hit the tape so there are many ways a trader could have traded it for profit. These calls have already traded as high as $2.15 today making this an extremely profitable trade in a very short amount of time.

Trade: A trader bought 1,189 UFS Apr 45 calls for $1.85
Risk: $185 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $46.85

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT) Activity Leads to Big Profits in Short Time

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT) is a Raleigh, North Carolina based enterprise software and technology provider. At the time of this post (1:10 PM CST), RHT is currently trading at 66.94, up 1.83% on the day. The stock is currently well within the upper portion of its 52 week trading range of 47.45-71.77, and has remained in a relatively strong uptrend since putting in the lows in late April.

Earlier this afternoon at approximately 12:00PM CST, OptionHacker detected and flagged some unusually bullish options activity in RHT as the stock broke the 66.50 level to the upside and pushed higher to test as high as 67.03. Coinciding with the outset of this breakout, a large trader came in and lifted the offer across multiple exchanges on 2,001 of the RHT Feb ’15 67.5 strike calls for 0.55. This transaction went off against an open interest of just 558 contracts in the strike, so we can surmise confidently that this was an opening transaction looking to profit from a near-term move higher in RHT, with the February monthly options expiration just nine days away on February 20th. This trader’s aggressive bet with an initial cash outlay of approximately $110,055 before commission costs appears to have paid off right away however, as this option has already traded as high as 0.85 on the session. RHT continues to look technically strong on multiple time frames, and we will be monitoring this position closely for continued upside going into next Friday’s front month.

Trade: A trader bought 2,001 RHT Feb 67.5 Calls for $0.55
Risk: $55 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $68.05

I bought some of these for $0.60 and have already taken profits at $0.70 and $0.80. These calls have already traded as high as $0.85 meaning this was an extremely profitable trade in the matter of only a few hours.

A Hugely Profitabel Trade Hit the Tape in Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) Today

Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) is the Deerfield, Illinois based parent holding company that owns and operates a global chain of drugstores/pharmacies under the Walgreens and Boots corporate names. At the time of this post (11:00AM CST), WBA is currently trading at 79.30, up 3.40% on the day. The stock continues to press new 52 week highs, and it traded as high as 79.79 earlier in today’s session after continuing its impressive rally off of the lows printed in early August at 57.75.

Earlier this morning at approximately 9:49AM CST, OptionHacker detected and flagged some unusually bullish options activity in WBA just as the stock broke through 78.50 and surged to fresh 52 week highs intraday. A large buyer stepped in at this time and purchased a block of 10,000 of the March ’15 80.0 strike calls for 1.25, paying over the listed ask price at the time of 1.21. Going off against an open interest in the strike of just 866 contracts, we can confidently surmise that this was an opening transaction, and that the trader was urgently looking to establish this bullish position as they were willing to pay up in order to gain immediate entry into these long contracts. With an initial cash outlay of approximately $1,250,000 before commissions, this sizable bet has already paid off for this trader as the options have traded as high as 1.80 on the day, and are currently sitting around 1.60 as WBA remains in its strong intraday uptrend. With just over 37 days until the March monthly option expiration and a significant profit cushion already established, this trader will likely be holding a significant portion of the position and looking for continued upside in WBA as we move forward into the coming month.

Trade: A trader bought 10,000 WBA Mar 80 calls for $1.25
Risk: $125 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $81.25

Over 12,000 contracts have traded on this line in total and these calls have already traded as high as $1.80 on the day making this an extremely profitable trade.

A Big Bullish Bet in Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX)

Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) is the ADR for the Taiwanese semiconductor and integrated circuit manufacturer. At the time of this post, (2:50PM CST), HIMX is currently trading at 7.89, up 4.09% on the day. The stock is currently still trading well within the lower portion of its 52 week trading range of 5.70-16.15, though it has managed to reclaim some if its losses after holding firm off the 6.00 support level in late July.

Earlier this morning at approximately 11:21AM CST, OptionHacker detected and flagged some unusually bullish options activity in HIMX just as the stock began to break through 7.80 resistance and surge higher intraday. A large buyer of 4,461 of the March ’15 8.0 strike calls stepped in and lifted the offer across multiple exchanges for 0.65, a trade that went off against an open interest in the strike of just 2,231 contracts. With an initial cash outlay of approximately $289,975 before commissions, this opening transaction reflects a large trader positioning for continued upside in HIMX going into the March monthly options expiration 38 days away. While the stock still remains technically weak on a daily chart, this trader is betting on a continued move higher in HIMX to at least 8.65 by March 20th 2015 in order to break even on this long position (not including commission costs). Accordingly, we will be monitoring this stock closely for continued upside headed into the next month of trading.

Trade: A trader bought 4,461 HIMX Mar 8 Calls for $0.65
Risk: $65 per 1 lot
Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $8.65

Will Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) Cool Off on Earnings?

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) is a Connecticut based hotel and travel-lodging provider that operates well known international brands such as the Westin, W, Sheraton and Aloft hotel chains. At the time of this post (1:30PM CST), HOT is currently trading at 71.12, down 0.75% on the day. The stock is currently well within the lower portion of its 52 week trading range of 68.53-86.11, and has remained in a sharp downtrend for the greater part of 2015. HOT is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, 2/10/2015 before the opening bell.

Over the last eight quarters of earnings data available, HOT has traded predominantly bearishly, moving lower on five out of eight sessions immediately following the EPS release. The average historical move during this same time period was approximately 3.5%. Currently the options market is pricing in a slightly larger than average move of around 5.33% by this Friday’s weekly options expiration, which would imply a directional move of about $3.80 in the price of the underlying stock over the course of the next four trading days. HOT remains in bearish territory on the daily chart as mentioned above, and the stock is well under the downward sloping Ichimoku cloud and all relevant moving averages as well, further solidifying the bearish case for this name. In conjunction with the stock’s propensity to sell off following earnings, I am currently leaning bearish HOT and will be looking to establish a short position going into the close of trading today.

Potential Trade: Buying the HOT Feb 70-65 Put Spreads for $1.00
Risk: $100 per 1 lot
Reward: $400 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $69.00

Trader is Fading Movement in 3M Company (MMM)

3M Company (MMM) is an industrial product and technology services provider based out of St. Paul Minnesota. At the time of this post (12:10PM CST), MMM is currently trading at 166.97, up 0.25% on the day. The stock is currently just off its 52 week highs of 168.16 which printed near the end of December 2014. MMM pulled back sharply after printing these highs on the year, but has managed to hold over the 160.00 support level on a daily chart and push back towards a re-test of these levels in recent sessions. The stock remains up significantly overall over the past 52 weeks, as it has been in a fairly strong uptrend since the lows were put in around this time last year.

Earlier this morning, OptionHacker detected and flagged a notable trade in MMM that would imply a trader is expecting little further directional movement in the stock heading into the April monthly options expiration, despite the overall bullish trend remaining intact for the time being. Between 9:10-9:20AM CST, a large trader came in and put on approximately 2,500 of the April ’15 160-165-170 iron butterflies, a neutral to slightly bearish trade that is structured to profit the most if MMM is trading at 165 (the middle strike in this strategic trade setup) by the April options expiration which is 70 days away. So while the technical picture in MMM continues to remain highly bullish, in this particular instance the unusual options activity may be telling a different story, at least for this particular trader looking for minimal movement in the stock over the next few months.

Will Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) Sell off on Earnings?

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is a San Francisco based social media and networking platform that allows users to post and exchange short messages in real-time. At the time of this writing, TWTR is currently trading at 42.06, up 3.29% on the day. The stock opened with a large gap up today on news that Google will now be including relevant Twitter “tweets” in the results yielded by its ubiquitous search engine. This potential increased visibility for Twitter was met with a largely bullish reaction, though the stock is currently trading off the intraday highs just under 42.50. On a daily chart, TWTR is trading within the lower-middle portion of its 52 week range of 29.51-58.98. The stock has been range-bound for the last several months, but that could be changing in short order with today’s gap higher and fourth quarter earnings scheduled for after the closing bell today, 2/5/2015.

TWTR has sold off on earnings day 3 of the past 4 quarters with an average move of 15.6%. Currently the options market is implying a move in TWTR of about $5.00 by tomorrow’s close. That would give us a downside target around $36.50 by the bell tomorrow. With TWTR showing weak historical earnings performance and the stock trading inside the cloud I will be looking to get short TWTR ahead of earnings.

Potential Trade: Buying the TWTR Feb 6th Weekly 38-36 Put Spreads for $0.50
Risk: $50 per 1 lot
Reward: $150 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $37.50