Deere and Company (DE) operates in three major segments including manufacturing and distributing, construction and forestry, and financial services. The stock is currently trading at the upper end of its 52 week range of $78.88-$93.78 around $89.71. The stock has been underperforming the market this year rallying a measly 1.25% year to date. DE is scheduled to report earnings before the bell tomorrow, and the stock appears fairly strong ahead of the release. DE is higher on the session by around $0.76 ahead of the report.
Over the past 12 quarters DE has sold off on earnings day 10 times with an average move of 2.63%. The stock has also sold off 10 times in 12 quarters from earnings day to the nearest options expiration. DE also appears quite flat on a chart going into the release. The stock is trading close to the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily bar, and looks as if it could break to the downside in today’s session. The Kinjun-Sen line, similar to a 30 period DMA, appears flat on the chart as well. Due to the stock’s historical performance on earnings day and weak technical data, it is hard to justify anything but a bearish trade in DE.
The options market is currently implying a move of around $2.54 or 2.8% in DE by this Friday’s close giving us a downside target around $87.10.
Potential Trade: Buying the DE May 22nd Weekly 88-87 Put Spreads for $0.30
Risk: $30 per 1 lot
Reward: $70 per 1 lot
Breakeven: $87.70
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