‘Twas almost the night before Yellen… BUT it is the start of the overly anticipated FOMC meeting… and I don’t care what they are about to do. Because I don’t know what it will mean or do to markets, and neither do you.
Anyways, I am still focused on Crude Oil, and just treating it as “business as usual”. I can guarantee this, I don’t anticipate tomorrow or the actual FOMC announcements/forecasts/conferences to bring MORE volatility than the recent Aug 24th Monday Morning Mini-Flash Crash. What I am saying is, if you survived that trading day, heck, maybe you even made profits — then this should be a walk in the park.
For reference, that Aug 24th Monday Morning Mini-Flash Crash had the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunging 5.3 percent in the opening minutes, which is the largest intraday loss in four years. The market bounced up, only to come back down, and pattern continued through the day until the close, when the benchmark finally settled down 3.9 percent. —So, if you are reading this, and still trading today, I think you have made it through a “crazier” event, than what we are about to see.
If anything, if I’m wrong, the effects will be felt far beyond the FED announcement itself, if there is truly a paradigm shift in the offing, than this will go on for days. So what I am personally doing, is preparing more for the “future” and less for tomorrow or the next day. This is one of the rare occasions (there are only 8 FOMC meetings a year) that can single handedly influence any and all markets in a moment. Something I am keeping conscious of regardless of what information we digest during or after this most hyped FOMC decision– is whatever decisions I make after the event, depending on what is said, could be the start of something unfathomably larger and different than we have ever seen before. I could be wrong. Forever.
So as of course, my mind can be confused and consumed in the most common market scuttle — as can yours… but as I started tonights post — I don’t care about the FED, I am focused on Crude Oil, and I am managing that position (front month expires Thursday), and that takes time, which is why I have time to think and speculate about these matters.
Besides we won’t know if we are really wrong “forever”, until the FED minutes (from this meeting), and that isn’t released for a few weeks. — All the more reasons for me to focus on my Crude Oil CL positions.
Numbers don’t lie, people do. We had another DRAWDOWN in API Tuesday after the close! I have more questions about CL than I do FOMC. Let’s see what CL can do tomorrow – (as we have more data in Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report due out @ 9:30 AM CT).
US API CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (SEP 11) W/W -3100K (Prev +2100K) – API CUSHING INVENTORIES (SEP 11) W/W -1500K *Yet another drawdown… $CL_F.
— Bret Rosenthal (@TheMarketQuote) September 15, 2015
Let’s try again tomorrow. – Happy Trading.