OptionHacker flags a great Bullish Signal in YPF

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Argentina. YPF is currently trading around $34.93 in a 52 week range of $16.06-$41.74. The company’s stock has been outperforming the market this year with shares raising 6.10% year to date. Options traders seem to think that this trend will continue as order flow in YOKU has been decidedly bullish during today’s trading session. Today a trader bought over 3135 YPF Aug 36 Calls for $1.35. This is an extremely bullish order and involves this trader laying out $423,225 in total premium. The stock looks strong today and is pushing higher since the trader bought these Calls. They do have Earnings on August 11th, so I would be a little careful on the possible crush of implied volatility.

Unusual Option Activity:
We define unusual option activity as large block trades that represent a large percentage of daily option volume. The block trade is considered “unusual” if the option volume is above the average daily volume over the past 22 days. At KeeneOnTheMarket.com we scan and analyze order flow from all of the major options exchanges in order to identify any unusual option activity.

Analyzing unusual order flow gives traders a window into what the positions that large institutional players have. The majority of unusual option activity can be traced back to hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large institutions. Knowing where these institutions are placing their bets can be hugely advantageous for any trader. These institutions have informational and technological advantages that the average trader doesn’t have, and the amount of time and analysis that goes into every one of their trades is substantial. We offer this service through our 7 hour daily LIVE trading room http://bit.ly/135QWt8 or through Premium Twitter feed with all entries, exits, and unusual options activity tweeted all day long: http://bit.ly/11f0L9u.

Order flow can however at times be deceiving. One might logically thing that a large block buyer of calls is bullish on the underlying. This is not always the case. Remember that a large number of participants in the equity options market are hedgers. Long calls are a hedge against short stock, and long puts are a hedge against long stock. With this in mind we have developed a 7 step trading plan that helps filter out unusual option activity that will not provide actionable trade setups. It is by using this plan that we are able to identify the most significant unusual options activity trades every day.

The Trade:
Buying the YPF Aug 37-39 Bull Calls Spread for $.50 debit
Risk: $50 per 1 lot
Targets: Sell 50% at a double and hold the balance until expiration
Breakeven: $37.50

Greeks of this Trade:
Delta: Long
Gamma: Long
Theta: Short
Vega: Long

(Full disclosure: I have no position in this stock)